當前實用化的固態鋰離子電池已經體現了更高的安全(quan)性，但(dan)(dan)是(shi)電池(chi)容(rong)量(liang)普遍偏(pian)小，能量(liang)密度相比于主流液態鋰(li)離子電池(chi)尚未體現出優勢(shi)，而(er)且較高倍率充放(fang)電、循環壽(shou)命等(deng)性能不及液態鋰(li)離子電池(chi)，成本(ben)也較高。所以其應用(yong)在(zai)規模化車用(yong)之前(qian)，有望先(xian)從(cong)特種需(xu)求(qiu)入手，如對(dui)倍率性能和循環壽(shou)命要求(qiu)不高，但(dan)(dan)對(dui)安全(quan)性要求(qiu)較高且具備一定能量(liang)密度需(xu)求(qiu)的飛機、軍(jun)用(yong)等(deng)領域。

預(yu)計2020-2021年左右，固態鋰電(dian)即可在部分特種應用方面取得一(yi)定(ding)市場規模。

在前(qian)期(qi)拓展應(ying)用領域同(tong)時，固態鋰電技術將(jiang)保持安全性優勢，向(xiang)高能量密度進(jin)發(fa)；同(tong)步的整(zheng)車實驗也將(jiang)逐步展開。

高能量(liang)密度固(gu)(gu)態鋰(li)電的實用(yong)化或循如下途(tu)徑：從現有正(zheng)負極(ji)、固(gu)(gu)體電解質(zhi)材(cai)料(liao)體系出(chu)發，尋找/優化和鋰(li)金(jin)屬/高比容(rong)量(liang)鋰(li)合金(jin)及高比容(rong)量(liang)正(zheng)極(ji)匹配的固(gu)(gu)體電解質(zhi)材(cai)料(liao)體系；固(gu)(gu)體電解質(zhi)用(yong)量(liang)優化；致密化；正(zheng)極(ji)比容(rong)量(liang)提升；減少其(qi)他輔助組元用(yong)量(liang)；優化正(zheng)負極(ji)容(rong)量(liang)比例。

鑒(jian)于正負(fu)極(ji)(ji)(ji)容量(liang)比1：1的鋰金屬負(fu)極(ji)(ji)(ji)固態鋰電完全充放(fang)時電池不同部分(fen)的體(ti)積改變、界面(mian)位置/形(xing)(xing)貌變化(hua)和負(fu)極(ji)(ji)(ji)形(xing)(xing)貌變化(hua)極(ji)(ji)(ji)大程度(du)地(di)影響(xiang)電池壽(shou)命，而負(fu)極(ji)(ji)(ji)合(he)金化(hua)對(dui)此的改善潛力(li)明顯，估計實用化(hua)的高安全性、高能量(liang)密度(du)固態鋰電最終的材(cai)料體(ti)系(xi)為高壓(ya)高鎳三元正極(ji)(ji)(ji)或硫系(xi)正極(ji)(ji)(ji)、超薄層多元復合(he)固體(ti)電解質、鋰合(he)金負(fu)極(ji)(ji)(ji)；單體(ti)能量(liang)密度(du)接近(jin)400Wh/kg。

如(ru)果高(gao)(gao)性(xing)能國態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)離子(zi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)順(shun)利研發成(cheng)功，且現有體系(xi)下(xia)的(de)(de)液態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)離子(zi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)也(ye)(ye)獲得充(chong)分(fen)優化，不妨(fang)對二(er)者進行綜(zong)(zong)合比較(jiao)(jiao)，試看固(gu)(gu)(gu)態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)離子(zi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)能為(wei)純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動乘用車帶來何種(zhong)程度(du)(du)上(shang)的(de)(de)性(xing)能提升。對相(xiang)應時點(dian)的(de)(de)估(gu)計，預期2025年左右。（活性(xing)物(wu)質方(fang)面，固(gu)(gu)(gu)態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)假(jia)設為(wei)高(gao)(gao)壓高(gao)(gao)鎳三(san)元正極(ji)、鋰(li)(li)(li)合金負極(ji)；液態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)假(jia)設為(wei)較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)(gao)壓高(gao)(gao)鎳三(san)元正極(ji)、硅碳負極(ji)）在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)性(xing)能的(de)(de)比較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)單體能量(liang)密(mi)度(du)(du)方(fang)面，固(gu)(gu)(gu)態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)液態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)；電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)系(xi)統成(cheng)組效率方(fang)面，固(gu)(gu)(gu)態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)受益(yi)于(yu)高(gao)(gao)安全性(xing)也(ye)(ye)更高(gao)(gao)；循環壽(shou)命和快(kuai)充(chong)能力方(fang)面，固(gu)(gu)(gu)態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)較(jiao)(jiao)液態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)仍存差(cha)距。另外，固(gu)(gu)(gu)態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)導仍然較(jiao)(jiao)小(xiao)并部分(fen)影響整車電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)耗。安全性(xing)方(fang)面國態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)更高(gao)(gao)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)成(cheng)本的(de)(de)比較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)，中性(xing)估(gu)計高(gao)(gao)能量(liang)密(mi)度(du)(du)固(gu)(gu)(gu)態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)綜(zong)(zong)合成(cheng)本將和液態(tai)(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相(xiang)近。

另外(wai)，鑒于固態鋰電(dian)在大倍率充放(fang)/應對實際功率波動方(fang)(fang)面仍然存(cun)在性能短板，我們構想整車動力構型方(fang)(fang)案為(wei)增程式；由(you)固態鋰電(dian)作為(wei)主要儲(chu)能裝置，并為(wei)其搭配(pei)高性能快充電(dian)池(chi)(chi)（擬采用快充型磷(lin)酸鐵鋰電(dian)池(chi)(chi)）進行功率波動平抑(yi)，以(yi)發揮固態鋰電(dian)優勢并延長(chang)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)包壽命。

我(wo)們選取B級純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動SUV比亞迪唐EV作為參考(kao)車型(xing)(xing)。假(jia)設到2025年，其百(bai)公里(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗有(you)較明顯(xian)下降(jiang)，并分別搭載(zai)液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)（能(neng)(neng)量(liang)型(xing)(xing)）和(he)增(zeng)程式構型(xing)(xing)固(gu)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)+液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)（功率(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)），統(tong)(tong)一限定電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)包質量(liang)。假(jia)設屆時(shi)120kW功率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)快(kuai)(kuai)充(chong)樁已較為普及，60kW功率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)快(kuai)(kuai)充(chong)樁已普及。三者基(ji)本性(xing)能(neng)(neng)均可(ke)(ke)(ke)滿足乘用(yong)車一般性(xing)應用(yong)。在關(guan)鍵的(de)(de)工況(kuang)續(xu)(xu)航(hang)方(fang)面(mian)，采用(yong)增(zeng)程式構型(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)國(guo)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)+功率(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)組合(he)的(de)(de)車型(xing)(xing)領先對(dui)應能(neng)(neng)量(liang)型(xing)(xing)液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)車型(xing)(xing)150km，高(gao)(gao)達(da)900km的(de)(de)工況(kuang)續(xu)(xu)航(hang)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以認(ren)為真(zhen)正告別了里(li)程焦慮(lv)；快(kuai)(kuai)充(chong)時(shi)間方(fang)面(mian)，能(neng)(neng)量(liang)型(xing)(xing)液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)車型(xing)(xing)相對(dui)更短；安(an)全(quan)性(xing)方(fang)面(mian)，國(guo)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)+功率(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)組合(he)也相對(dui)更高(gao)(gao)。綜合(he)考(kao)慮(lv)各種因(yin)素后我(wo)們認(ren)為，如果材料-工藝-設備(bei)體系研發與量(liang)產(chan)進展順利，增(zeng)程式平(ping)臺(tai)設計合(he)理優化充(chong)分，采用(yong)增(zeng)程式構型(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)固(gu)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)+功率(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)組合(he)可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)是以長續(xu)(xu)航(hang)和(he)高(gao)(gao)安(an)全(quan)性(xing)為賣點，有(you)較長時(shi)間離(li)網需求的(de)(de)純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動車型(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)主要技(ji)術方(fang)案；而使用(yong)液(ye)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)離(li)子電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技(ji)術的(de)(de)車型(xing)(xing)更可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)依(yi)托發達(da)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)，在不同的(de)(de)續(xu)(xu)航(hang)里(li)程-快(kuai)(kuai)充(chong)時(shi)間之間尋求平(ping)衡。固(gu)態(tai)鋰(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)或可(ke)(ke)(ke)引領純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車的(de)(de)下一次技(ji)術革新(xin)。